In the North Central U.S., temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are changing, with consequences ranging from more frequent and severe wildfires to prolonged drought to widespread forest pest outbreaks. As a result, land managers are becoming increasingly concerned about how climate change is affecting natural resources and the essential services they provide communities.
 
The rates and ecological impacts of changing conditions vary across this diverse region, which stretches from the Great Plains to the High Rockies. The goal of this project is to understand how native grasslands, shrublands, and forests will respond to changing conditions. Researchers will first model how these vegetation types have changed over the past 50 years, then will project how they might change over the next century under different possible future conditions.
 
Understanding how these native ecosystems may change is critical, particularly in light of the wildlife and communities that depend on them. Species such as the greater sage-grouse, elk, deer, and grizzly bears could lose important habitat if conditions change. Humans could also be impacted – subalpine forests, for example, control snow accumulation and melt, which in turn affect the water supply. The results of this research will be used to support local stakeholders in developing strategies for coping with and adapting to projected changes in vegetation across the North Central region.
 
This project team is part of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Foundational Science Area Team, which supports foundational research and advice, guidance, and technical assistance to other NC CSC projects as they address climate science challenges that are important for land managers and ecologists in the region.