In the North Central U.S., drought is a dominant driver of ecological, economic, and social stress. Drought conditions have occurred in the region due to lower precipitation, extended periods of high temperatures and evaporative demand, or a combination of these factors. This project aims to improve our understanding of drought in the North Central region and determine what future droughts might look like over the 21st century, as climate conditions change. Researchers will evaluate and improve available and emerging data on climate conditions that influence drought (such as changes in temperature, precipitation, evaporative demand, snow and soil moisture), as well as datasets related to the surface water balance (such as evapotranspiration and streamflow). Researchers will then use these data to identify a range of plausible future climate conditions for the region, known as “scenarios”, to help land managers better understand the threat posed by drought and to plan for its potential impacts. Researchers will also make relevant climate datasets available to ecologists and land managers for modeling ecosystem response under different future climate scenarios.

This project team is part of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Foundational Science Area Team, which supports foundational research and advice, guidance, and technical assistance to other NC CSC projects as they address climate science challenges that are important for land managers and ecologists in the region.