Fossil fuel and agriculture have increased atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane, which have caused global air temperature to increase by almost 1- degree Celsius. In the absence of climate mitigation, over the next century human-driven climate change is expected to increase temperatures from pre-industrial levels by more than 2-degrees. Understanding the consequences of climate change on ecosystems and the services they provide are critical for guiding land management activities that aim to improve resiliency and to prevent species losses. Here we evaluated how sagebrush ecosystems in the Western United States respond to climate change by using multiple climate projections and ecosystem modeling approaches to assess uncertainty and to identify future areas of field and experimental research. We find that in the absence of changes in fire, invasive species, and habitat loss, that sagebrush is tolerant of both low moisture levels and high air temperatures, and that climate change will impact the southern extent of its range most significantly. Process-based models, which consider the effects of carbon dioxide on leaf photosynthesis and water exchange show potential increases in the growth of sagebrush into the 21st century. Compared to field observations, there is a need to further constrain how sagebrush allocates carbon to roots, stems and foliage, and how these processes respond to water limitation. Agreement between modeling approaches that sagebrush is tolerant to higher air temperatures suggests that land managers should consider enhancing resilience of these systems through fire and invasive species management strategies.