Pinyon pine woodlands are among the most widespread and iconic vegetation types in the western United States and support recreation, resource extraction, grazing, and cultural enrichment. However, severe drought conditions have recently caused dramatic mortality of pinyon pines, creating concern about the long-term impact of increasing aridity on the viability of pinyon woodlands. Ecological transformations, or regime shifts, are rapid reorganizations of an ecosystem’s species composition, governing processes, and functions.
 
The goal of this project is to investigate ecological transformation across the Western U.S, characterize the environmental drivers of these changes in vegetation, and apply those insights to map contemporary transformation risk – across pinyon pine woodlands and other vegetation types in the U.S. West. Researchers will do this by employing data from existing paleorecords and statistical analysis of recent observations to understand what controls ecological transformations and assess the potential for 21st century transformation in pinyon pine woodlands.
 
The primary product will be maps depicting the risk of existing pinyon and other systems transforming to other vegetation types. These maps will help resource managers understand the potential for important change in pinyon resources, helping them maximize the long-term effectiveness of their conservation and restoration management strategies.