Projected suitable habitat models were constructed using a set of presence points for the species derived from element occurrence and herbarium records, together with temperature, precipitation, and soil variables. The current distribution used modeled historic period (1970-2000) climate variables from the appropriate matching GCM model run. These model parameters were then used with projected climate data to get future (2020-2050) modeled suitable habitat for each scenario. Modeled past suitable habitat and modeled future suitable habitat are combined to show areas of change, using various thresholds to distinguish change categories, as well as comparison to current mapped habitats from SWReGAP landcover (USGS 2004) or LANDFIRE existing vegetation (version 1.3.0).

The change categories are (raster values in parentheses):
(1) Lost = will not remain in place
(2) Threatened = unlikely to remain in place, especially after a disturbance
(3) Persistent = conditions remain within historical range
(4) Emergent = new areas where climate will become suitable