Capacity Building in the North-Central U.S.: Tribal Engagement, Climate Training, and PhenoCam Deployment

Climate change is poised to alter natural systems, the frequency of extreme weather, and human health and livelihoods. In order to effectively prepare for and respond to these challenges in the north-central region of the U.S., people must have the knowledge and tools to develop plans and adaptation strategies. The objective of this project was to build stakeholders’ capacity to respond to climate change in the north-central U.S., filling in gaps not covered by other projects in the region. During the course of this project, researchers focused on three major activities:

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges.

Data Management Challenges in Species Distribution Modeling

An important component in the fields of ecology and conservation biology is understanding the environmental conditions and geographic areas that are suitable for a given species to inhabit. A common tool in determining such areas is species distribution modeling which uses computer algorithms to determine the spatial distribution of organisms. Most commonly the correlative relationships between the organism and environmental variables are the primary consideration.

VisTrails SAHM: visualization and workflow management for species habitat modeling

The Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) has been created to both expedite habitat modeling and help maintain a record of the various input data, pre- and post-processing steps and modeling options incorporated in the construction of a species distribution model through the established workflow management and visualization VisTrails software.

Exposure of US National Parks to Land Use and Climate Change 1900-2100

Abstract (from http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/13-0905.1):  Many protected areas may not be adequately safeguarding biodiversity from human activities on surrounding lands and global change. The magnitude of such change agents and the sensitivity of ecosystems to these agents vary among protected areas. Thus, there is a need to assess vulnerability across networks of protected areas to determine those most at risk and to lay the basis for developing effective adaptation strategies.

Woodland Dynamics at the Northern Range Periphery: A Challenge for Protected Area Management in a Changing World

Abstract (from http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0070…): Managers of protected natural areas increasingly are confronted with novel ecological conditions and conflicting objectives to preserve the past while fostering resilience for an uncertain future. This dilemma may be pronounced at range peripheries where rates of change are accelerated and ongoing invasions often are perceived as threats to local ecosystems.

TopoWx ("Topographical Weather/Climate") temperature dataset tile grid

This dataset is a shapefile that contains the grid outlines and identifiers for the tiles produced by the TopoWx ("Topographical Weather/Climate") temperature dataset as applied to the USGS North Central Climate Center Domain and the surrounding area of Montana. The TopoWx dataset contains gridded daily temperature and is an interpolated spatio-temporaldataset in the same vein as the well-known PRISM (http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu) and Daymet products (http://daymet.ornl.gov).

Output from MC1 Model Modified to Simulate Future Woody Encroachment in the Northern Great Plains

This data set contains output from the dynamic vegetation model MC1, as modified to simulate future woody encroachment in the northern Great Plains, for 23 monthly variables, 63 yearly variables, and 31 multi-year variables. Variables include simulated plant (by growth form) and soil carbon stocks, net primary production, vegetation type, potential and actual evapotranspiration, stream flow, and fuel mass and moisture.

Extent of fragmentation of coarse-scale habitats in and around U.S. National Parks

Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320712002388):  U.S. National Park Service land managers face a variety of challenges to preserving the biodiversity in their parks. A principle challenge is to minimize the impacts of surrounding land use on park condition and biodiversity.