Final Report for Foundational Science Area: Climate Adaptation Strategies for Wildlife and Habitats in the North Central U.S.

In the previous first phase of the Impacts and Vulnerability project, we made substantial progress in assessing climate and land use change impacts across the NCCASC domain. These include: quantifying the rates of land use change in greater wildland ecosystems (GWEs), determining the extent of fragmentation in major ecosystems across GWEs, assessing climate change impacts on public, private, and tribal lands within GWEs, evaluating evaporative demands across hydroclimatic gradients of eight ecoregions across north central U.S., and predicting forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

Historical (1981-2005) vs. Projected (2031-’55) Yields Showing Major Crops and Models Reported in Arora et al Ag Econ Submission

Historical (1981-2005) vs. Projected (2031-’55) Yields. Each year’s crop yields are calculated as an average of all counties in North and South Dakota. Hashed representations of projected yields are from RCP 4.5 emissions scenario from seven GCMs, namely CESM (Community Earth System Model), CNRM (Center National de Recherches Météorologiques (France)), GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies), HADGEM (Hadley Global Environment Model), IPSL (Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (France)) and MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate).

Increasing carbon footprint of grain crop production in the US Western Corn Belt

Abstract (from IOP Science): Global agriculture is challenged to increase soil carbon sequestration and reduce greenhouse gas emissions while providing products for an increasing population. Growing crop production could be achieved through higher yield per hectare (i.e. intensive farming) or more hectares (extensive farming), which however, have different ecological and environmental consequences. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that expanding cropland for additional production may lead to loss of vegetation and soil carbon, and threaten the survival of wildlife.

Habitat Suitability of Dominant Tree and Shrub Species to Support Wolverine Management Across North West U.S. (1971-2100) Under Climate Change

Historical and projected suitable habitat of 14 tree and shrub species a under CCSM4 GCMs from 2000 to 2099 was predicted to assess projected climate change impacts in forest communities of North Central U.S. We obtained presence/absence record of each species from Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. required ata. Historical tme period ranges from 1971 to 2000, and projected time period ranges from 2071 to 2100. Random Forest was used to project historical and future suitable habitat of all species across West U.S. using the Biomod2 software programmed in R environment.

When

Members of the Great Plains Tribal Water Alliance Board will meet with the NC CASC leadership in Boulder, CO on December 19 to discuss synergistic opportunities. Joining them will be a Louis Berger Scientist and student interns from the South Dakota School of Mines. While at CU, the group will also meet with representatives from the Center for Native American and Indigenous Studies (CNAIS).